Invisible Obama update....

This post from a few weeks ago from George Washington University's David Karpf:

Most reporters will be tasked with focusing on the drama, the soundbites. More of the public will see/hear the headlines then will pay attention to the speeches themselves. And the headlines and soundbites will all be geared towards advancing a predetermined narrative. Fox News will call Romney's speech a landmark event that reignites his campaign. They'll call Ryan's speech Reaganesque. CNN and the major news networks will talk about how the speeches couldn't have gone much better. They'll ask a panel of commentators to rate the speech. A token Democrat will give it a 1, a token Republican will give it a 10, and the other analysts will all give it an 8 or a 9. They'll focus on how close the polls already are and speculate on how big of a convention bump we'll see. MSNBC will stand alone, with Rachel Maddow and Chris Hayes talking about the lack of policy details, the errors, oversights, and outright lies, and the threat to popular government programs. Politifact will issue "mostly false" statements. No one will pay any attention to Politifact. Each of these networks is playing to a niche audience that tunes in for their brand of commentary.

Karpf's comments help clarify why lies in a convention speech aren't likely going to have much impact on polling numbers and lays out, very clearly, why Nate Silver's Fivethirtyeight election forecasts don't factor in much of a bounce for either candidate after the convention... stay tuned for polling updates after today's job numbers report.  Dems are spinning the lousy 96,000 jobs as a positive because unemployment dropped to 8.1%, GOP, understandably, is hammering Obama for the truly lousy numbers.